Considering equity in priority setting using transmission models: Recommendations and data needs.

OBJECTIVES: Disease transmission models are used in impact assessment and economic evaluations of infectious disease prevention and treatment strategies, prominently so in the COVID-19 response. These models rarely consider dimensions of equity relating to the differential health burden between individuals and groups. We describe concepts and approaches which are useful when considering equity in the priority setting process, and outline the technical choices concerning model structure, outputs, and data requirements needed to use transmission models in analyses of health equity. METHODS: We reviewed the literature on equity concepts and approaches to their application in economic evaluation and undertook a technical consultation on how equity can be incorporated in priority setting for infectious disease control. The technical consultation brought together health economists with an interest in equity-informative economic evaluation, ethicists specialising in public health, mathematical modellers from various disease backgrounds, and representatives of global health funding and technical assistance organisations, to formulate key areas of consensus and recommendations. RESULTS: We provide a series of recommendations for applying the Reference Case for Economic Evaluation in Global Health to infectious disease interventions, comprising guidance on 1) the specification of equity concepts; 2) choice of evaluation framework; 3) model structure; and 4) data needs. We present available conceptual and analytical choices, for example how correlation between different equity- and disease-relevant strata should be considered dependent on available data, and outline how assumptions and data limitations can be reported transparently by noting key factors for consideration. CONCLUSIONS: Current developments in economic evaluations in global health provide a wide range of methodologies to incorporate equity into economic evaluations. Those employing infectious disease models need to use these frameworks more in priority setting to accurately represent health inequities. We provide guidance on the technical approaches to support this goal and ultimately, to achieve more equitable health policies.

Implementation of corticosteroids in treatment of COVID-19 in the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: prospective, cohort study

Background Dexamethasone was the first intervention proven to reduce mortality in patients with COVID-19 being treated in hospital. We aimed to evaluate the adoption of corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 in the UK after the RECOVERY trial publication on June 16, 2020, and to identify discrepancies in care. Methods We did an audit of clinical implementation of corticosteroids in a prospective, observational, cohort study in 237 UK acute care hospitals between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, restricted to patients aged 18 years or older with proven or high likelihood of COVID-19, who received supplementary oxygen. The primary outcome was administration of dexamethasone, prednisolone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone. This study is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN66726260. Findings Between June 17, 2020, and April 14, 2021, 47 795 (75.2%) of 63 525 of patients on supplementary oxygen received corticosteroids, higher among patients requiring critical care than in those who received ward care (11 185 [86.6%] of 12 909 vs 36 415 [72.4%] of 50 278). Patients 50 years or older were significantly less likely to receive corticosteroids than those younger than 50 years (adjusted odds ratio 0.79 [95% CI 0.70-0.89], p=0.0001, for 70-79 years;0.52 [0.46-0.58], p<0.0001, for >80 years), independent of patient demographics and illness severity. 84 (54.2%) of 155 pregnant women received corticosteroids. Rates of corticosteroid administration increased from 27.5% in the week before June 16, 2020, to 75-80% in January, 2021. Interpretation Implementation of corticosteroids into clinical practice in the UK for patients with COVID-19 has been successful, but not universal. Patients older than 70 years, independent of illness severity, chronic neurological disease, and dementia, were less likely to receive corticosteroids than those who were younger, as were pregnant women. This could reflect appropriate clinical decision making, but the possibility of inequitable access to life-saving care should be considered. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Asthma may influence long-term consequences of COVID-19 in hospitalised adult

Background: The symptoms of the COVID-19 acute phase are well studied, but the long-term sequelae (post-COVID condition) are still poorly characterised. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of persistent symptoms in previously hospitalised adult patients with COVID-19 and assess risk factors for the post-COVID condition Method: Ambidirectional cohort study of patients over 18 years hospitalised to Sechenov University Hospital Network, Moscow, Russia with clinically diagnosed or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between April 8 and July 10, 2020. Study participants were interviewed 6-8 months after discharge via telephone using a follow-up case report form (CRF) developed by ISARIC in collaboration with WHO. Identified symptoms were categorised according to organ systems. Risk factors were assessed by multivariate logistic regression. Results: Among 4,755 patients discharged from the hospitals, 2,649 were subsequently interviewed. The median age of patients was 56 years (46-66), and 1,353 patients (51.1%) were female. The follow-up median time was 217.5 days (200.4-235.5). 1,247 (47.1%) participants reported persistent symptoms (since discharge). The most frequent symptoms were fatigue (21.2%, 551/2599), shortness of breath (14.5%, 378/2614) and forgetfulness (9.1%, 237/2597). Female gender was associated with chronic fatigue with an odds ratio of 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.39-2.02), neurological 2.03 (1.60-2.58), mental 1.83 (1.41-2.40), respiratory 1.31 (1.06-1.62) and dermatological symptoms 3.26 (2.36-4.57), GI disturbances 2.50 (1.64-3.89) and sensory problems 1.73 (2.06-2.89). Pre-existing asthma was associated with a higher risk of neurological 1.95 (1.25-2.98) and mood and behavioural changes 2.02 (1.24-3.18). Conclusion: Six to eight months after COVID-19 nearly half of patients have symptoms lasting since discharge. The main risk factor for the majority of the development of long-term symptoms was female sex. Asthma may also serve as a risk factor for the post-COVID condition. Further follow-up of patients reporting the persistence of COVID-19 symptoms and the development of interventional approaches for the prevention of post-COVID manifestations are needed.

Reshaping the diagnostic pathways for investigation of haematuria during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: Diagnostic accuracy of strategies for the detection of bladder cancer from the IDENTIFY cohort study

Background: Haematuria often requires investigation with an imaging test and flexible cystoscopy to rule out urinary tract cancers. With a reduction in diagnostic services due to the COVID-19 pandemic there is a risk of compromise in the care of patients referred with haematuria. We aimed to provide a pragmatic strategy that optimises the use of scarce resources by reducing patient visits to hospital and allocating the appropriate diagnostic tests according to risk of bladder cancer. Methods: The IDENTIFY study was an international, prospective, multicentre cohort study of over 11,000 patients referred to secondary care for investigation of newly suspected urinary tract cancer. Patients underwent cystoscopy, imaging tests, urine cytology and transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT), where indicated. We developed strategies using combinations of imaging and cytology as triage tests to flexible cystoscopy. These strategies aimed to maximise cancer detection within a pragmatic pathway in a resource-limited environment. Findings: 8112 patients (74 4%) received an ultrasound or a CT urogram, with or without cytology. 5737 (70 7%) patients had visible haematuria (VH) and 2375 (29 3%) had non-visible haematuria (NVH). Amongst all patients, 1474 (18 2%) had bladder cancer;1333 (23 2%) in VH group and 141 (5 94%) in NVH group. Diagnostic test performance was used to determine optimal age cut-offs for each proposed strategy. We recommended proceeding directly to TURBT for patients of any age with positive triage tests for cancer. Patients with negative triage tests under 35-years-old with VH, or under 50-years-old with NVH can safely be discharged without undergoing flexible cystoscopy. The remaining patients may undergo flexible cystoscopy, with a greater priority for older patients (threshold of 60-years-old with VH, or 70-years-old with NVH) to capture high risk bladder cancer. Interpretation: We suggest diagnostic strategies in patients with haematuria, which focus on detection of bladder cancer, whilst reducing the burden to healthcare services in a resource-limited setting.

Reshaping the diagnostic pathways for investigation of haematuria during and after the covid-19 pandemic: Diagnostic accuracy of strategies for detection of bladder cancer from the identify cohort study

Introduction: Diagnostic haematuria services have been reduced due to the COVID-19 pandemic, compromising patient care, and necessitating a more pragmatic pathway. Method: The IDENTIFY study was an international, prospective, multicentre cohort study of over 11,000 patients referred to secondary care for investigation of haematuria. Using this data, we developed strategies using combinations of imaging and cytology as triage tests to maximise cancer detection within a pragmatic pathway. Results: 8112 patients (74 4%) received an ultrasound or a CT urogram, with or without cytology. 5737 (70 7%) patients had visible haematuria (VH) and 2375 (29 3%) had non-visible haematuria (NVH). Diagnostic test performance was used to determine optimal age cut-offs for four proposed strategies. We recommended proceeding directly to transurethral resection of bladder tumour for patients of any age with positive triage tests for cancer. Patients with negative triage tests under 35-years-old with VH, or under 50-years-old with NVH can safely be discharged without undergoing flexible cystoscopy. The remaining patients may undergo flexible cystoscopy, with a greater priority for older patients to capture high risk bladder cancer. Conclusions: We suggest diagnostic strategies in patients with haematuria, which focus on detection of bladder cancer, whilst reducing the burden to healthcare services in a resource-limited setting.

Prospective data of first 1,797 hospitalised patients with cancer and COVID-19 derived from the COVID-19 Clinical Information Network and international Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium, WHO Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the UK triggered a national characterisation protocol and information on co-morbidities including malignant neoplasm is recorded. A lack of prospective data regarding cancer patients with COVID-19 hampers the development of an evidence based approach in this population. The Clinical Characterisation Protocol-CANCER-UK is a UK multi-disciplinary project aimed at characterising the presentation and course of COVID-19 in cancer patients with the aim of informing practice. Methods: The international Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)-4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) collects data on hospital inpatients with proven/high likelihood of COVID-19. Data was collected in 166 UK sites using a questionnaire adopted by the WHO. Data on patients with malignant neoplasm was extracted from the main dataset. We chose a priori to restrict any analysis of outcome to patients who were admitted more than 14 days before data extraction (13th May 2020). Results: As of 13th May 2020 1797 of 16160 participants had malignant neoplasm (8.6% of all cases). Age<50 62 (3.5%), 50-60 378 (21%), 70-79 558 (31%), 80+ 1002 (42%). Male 1147 (64%);Female 645 (36%). Commonest comorbidities chromic pulmonary disease (22%), chronic kidney disease (21%), uncomplicated diabetes (19%) and dementia (14%). Outcomes 35% discharged alive, 30% care ongoing & 35% died. Admiited to ICU: 150 cases (25% discharged alive,31% care ongoing & 45% died). Receiving invasive ventiation: 67 cases (18% discharged alive, 25% care ongoing:25% & 57% died). HR mortality for malignancy (adjusted for age, sex, other comorbidity): 1.13 (1.02-1.24, p=0.017). Data on presentation will be presented. Conclusions: Europe’s largest prospective COVID-19 dataset demonstrates that cancer is independently associated with mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19. Data collection is on-going and updated data will be presented including a comparison of cancer vs. non-cancer cohort with regard to presentation, comorbidity and otucomes. Clinical trial identification: ISRCTN66726260. Legal entity responsible for the study: and international Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C). Funding: UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council and Department for Health and Social Care. Disclosure: All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.